Will Republicans win the Texas and Maine Senate seats, and Democrats win Michigan?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 98¢ · $141 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$141.43
-$3.22
98¢ → 97.7¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $61.95 | $58.4 | -$3.55 | 92% 8456-738 (9194) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $34.61 | $32.69 | -$1.92 | 56% 3732-2932 (6664) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $29.42 | $27.77 | -$1.65 | 50% 7785-7688 (15473) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $12.56 | $11.85 | -$0.71 | 59% 218-153 (371) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.46 | $8.59 | +$4.61 | 47% 2041-2301 (4342) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Noavg 90.4¢ | $2.13 | $2.14 | +$0 | 39% 187-287 (474) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$61.95
Value
$58.4
PnL
-$3.55
Record
92%
8456-738 (9194)
Invested
$34.61
Value
$32.69
PnL
-$1.92
Record
56%
3732-2932 (6664)
Invested
$29.42
Value
$27.77
PnL
-$1.65
Record
50%
7785-7688 (15473)
Invested
$12.56
Value
$11.85
PnL
-$0.71
Record
59%
218-153 (371)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$0.46
Value
$8.59
PnL
+$4.61
Record
47%
2041-2301 (4342)
Invested
$2.13
Value
$2.14
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
187-287 (474)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.