Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (85%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win the New Hampshire Governor election and Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate election?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 16¢ · $62 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 86%
$61.64
$1.66
Research grade
AvoidNo at 16%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 85%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $22.8 | $23.56 | +$0.76 | 45% 2379-2946 (5325) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $10.05 | $10.39 | +$0.33 | 72% 6949-2755 (9704) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 85¢ | $10.14 | $10.01 | -$0 | 16% 410-2142 (2552) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $4.52 | $4.67 | +$0.15 | 48% 6589-7150 (13739) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $4.5 | $4.65 | +$0.15 | 55% 26226-21675 (47901) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $4.5 | $4.65 | +$0.15 | 52% 9005-8193 (17198) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $3.6 | $3.72 | +$0.12 | 51% 2112-2017 (4129) |
Invested
$22.8
Value
$23.56
PnL
+$0.76
Record
45%
2379-2946 (5325)
Invested
$10.05
Value
$10.39
PnL
+$0.33
Record
72%
6949-2755 (9704)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$10.14
Value
$10.01
PnL
-$0
Record
16%
410-2142 (2552)
Invested
$4.52
Value
$4.67
PnL
+$0.15
Record
48%
6589-7150 (13739)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$4.5
Value
$4.65
PnL
+$0.15
Record
55%
26226-21675 (47901)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$4.65
PnL
+$0.15
Record
52%
9005-8193 (17198)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.72
PnL
+$0.12
Record
51%
2112-2017 (4129)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.