Will Republicans win the Georgia Governor election and Democrats win the Georgia Senate election?

17 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (81%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 81%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$132.06

Smart Money Entry

76.7¢ → 99.4¢

+29% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 21 top traders (81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,164

Combined PnL+$152.84

Yes4 traders

Total Value$611.46

Total Shares3,122

Combined PnL-$284.9

No — 81%Yes — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 83.7¢	$385.76	$458.56	+$72.81	60% 11512-7658 (19170)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Yesavg 35.6¢	$218.54	$368.16	-$52.98	51% 2129-2037 (4166)
GA Gaditima	Noavg 76.3¢	$474.97	$361.2	-$113.77	48% 6904-7549 (14453)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 69.8¢	$211.6	$213.32	+$0.43	71% 6986-2793 (9779)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 15.3¢	$413.94	$210.71	-$159.22	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
E4 e46m3	Noavg 89.2¢	$148.93	$166.03	+$17.1	73% 13478-5027 (18505)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 47.6¢	$89.6	$160.41	+$61.53	54% 22041-19146 (41187)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 82.4¢	$89.44	$107.95	+$18.51	40% 2076-3118 (5194)
LP lpgb	Noavg 85.8¢	$174.24	$89.55	+$10.37	25% 316-961 (1277)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 77.2¢	$76.37	$82.5	+$25.36	62% 14572-9115 (23687)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 78¢	$60.98	$77.83	+$16.85	47% 2049-2324 (4373)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 73.3¢	$49.95	$67.72	+$17.77	55% 4345-3527 (7872)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 87.1¢	$48.75	$55.72	+$6.97	30% 2141-4968 (7109)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 78.4¢	$30.94	$39.27	+$8.34	47% 1605-1792 (3397)
HolyMoses7<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$38.48	$38.87	+$0.39	54% 1605-1394 (2999)
GR grinder1011CTR<$100	Yesavg 42.1¢	$44.25	$30.45	-$17.28	38% 120-198 (318)
ME MenacingTurtle<$100	Noavg 83.6¢	$25.07	$29.82	+$4.75	56% 266-208 (474)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 85¢	$28.43	$28	-$0.43	16% 273-1382 (1655)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 82.9¢	$19.75	$23.72	+$3.97	38% 966-1581 (2547)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 87.2¢	$13.49	$15.39	+$1.9	38% 978-1567 (2545)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 15.2¢	$115.02	$2.14	-$55.42	53% 8015-7117 (15132)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$385.76

Value

$458.56

PnL

+$72.81

Record

60%

11512-7658 (19170)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Yes

Invested

$218.54

Value

$368.16

PnL

-$52.98

Record

51%

2129-2037 (4166)

Gaditima

Invested

$474.97

Value

$361.2

PnL

-$113.77

Record

48%

6904-7549 (14453)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$211.6

Value

$213.32

PnL

+$0.43

Record

71%

6986-2793 (9779)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$413.94

Value

$210.71

PnL

-$159.22

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

e46m3

Invested

$148.93

Value

$166.03

PnL

+$17.1

Record

73%

13478-5027 (18505)

cigarettes

Invested

$89.6

Value

$160.41

PnL

+$61.53

Record

54%

22041-19146 (41187)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$89.44

Value

$107.95

PnL

+$18.51

Record

40%

2076-3118 (5194)

lpgb

Invested

$174.24

Value

$89.55

PnL

+$10.37

Record

25%

316-961 (1277)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$76.37

Value

$82.5

PnL

+$25.36

Record

62%

14572-9115 (23687)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$60.98

Value

$77.83

PnL

+$16.85

Record

47%

2049-2324 (4373)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$49.95

Value

$67.72

PnL

+$17.77

Record

55%

4345-3527 (7872)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$48.75

Value

$55.72

PnL

+$6.97

Record

30%

2141-4968 (7109)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$30.94

Value

$39.27

PnL

+$8.34

Record

47%

1605-1792 (3397)

HolyMoses7<$100

Invested

$38.48

Value

$38.87

PnL

+$0.39

Record

54%

1605-1394 (2999)

grinder1011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.25

Value

$30.45

PnL

-$17.28

Record

38%

120-198 (318)

MenacingTurtle<$100

Invested

$25.07

Value

$29.82

PnL

+$4.75

Record

56%

266-208 (474)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$28.43

Value

$28

PnL

-$0.43

Record

16%

273-1382 (1655)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$19.75

Value

$23.72

PnL

+$3.97

Record

38%

966-1581 (2547)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$13.49

Value

$15.39

PnL

+$1.9

Record

38%

978-1567 (2545)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$115.02

Value

$2.14

PnL

-$55.42

Record

53%

8015-7117 (15132)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

17 of 21 top traders (81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.