Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 85¢ · $992 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$991.84
$157.24
89.2¢ → 85¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LA lava-lavaCTR | Yesavg 9.8¢ | $260.74 | $444.7 | +$183.96 | 43% 535-721 (1256) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 88.9¢ | $396.34 | $344.47 | -$38.12 | 17% 399-1961 (2360) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 92.2¢ | $92.99 | $85.33 | -$6.1 | 23% 177-599 (776) |
 GayPrideCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.1¢ | $3.62 | $57.94 | +$11.14 | 49% 357-367 (724) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 85.5¢ | $44.48 | $44 | -$0.48 | 17% 1023-4939 (5962) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $8.56 | $15.41 | +$6.85 | 41% 941-1363 (2304) |
Invested
$260.74
Value
$444.7
PnL
+$183.96
Record
43%
535-721 (1256)
IstarothInvested
$396.34
Value
$344.47
PnL
-$38.12
Record
17%
399-1961 (2360)
Invested
$92.99
Value
$85.33
PnL
-$6.1
Record
23%
177-599 (776)
GayPrideCTR<$100Invested
$3.62
Value
$57.94
PnL
+$11.14
Record
49%
357-367 (724)
Invested
$44.48
Value
$44
PnL
-$0.48
Record
17%
1023-4939 (5962)
Invested
$8.56
Value
$15.41
PnL
+$6.85
Record
41%
941-1363 (2304)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.