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Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market
SIGNAL
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Open
Consensus Traders
0
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
$0
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes5%
No95%
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance5.9%
4.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$1605.54
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
1705.5
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x645207af...3ac07a
Slug
will-republican-senate-incumbents-not-win-in-exactly-two-nominating-elections-in-the-2026-cycle