Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Rennes finish first in UEL league phase?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $54 held · ends Feb 28, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Feb 28, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$53.65

Combined PnL

$112.32

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$53.65

Total Shares2,190

Combined PnL+$112.32

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yes	$31.76	$31.76	-$30.22	31% 3287-7149 (10436)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$8.92	$9.8	+$0.88	40% 6569-9849 (16418)
HA haveagooddayCTR	Yesavg 0.1¢	$185.35	$3.68	+$143.35	47% 3850-4311 (8161)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$1.14	$2.25	-$2.14	23% 1808-6060 (7868)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.03	$1.74	+$1.71	27% 2545-6952 (9497)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.03	$1.23	+$1.19	17% 1360-6591 (7951)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yes	$1.23	$1.23	-$0.58	28% 579-1489 (2068)
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.87	$1.12	-$1.06	61% 864-548 (1412)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$0.49	-$0.47	17% 396-1983 (2379)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0.37	-$0.35	49% 6588-6939 (13527)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.76

Value

$31.76

PnL

-$30.22

Record

31%

3287-7149 (10436)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.92

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$0.88

Record

40%

6569-9849 (16418)

haveagooddayCTR

Yes

Invested

$185.35

Value

$3.68

PnL

+$143.35

Record

47%

3850-4311 (8161)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.14

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$2.14

Record

23%

1808-6060 (7868)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$1.74

PnL

+$1.71

Record

27%

2545-6952 (9497)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$1.23

PnL

+$1.19

Record

17%

1360-6591 (7951)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.23

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$0.58

Record

28%

579-1489 (2068)

P1kasoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.87

Value

$1.12

PnL

-$1.06

Record

61%

864-548 (1412)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$0.47

Record

17%

396-1983 (2379)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$0.35

Record

49%

6588-6939 (13527)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.