Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 5-6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 37¢ · $848 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$848.45
$224.76
26.3¢ → 37¢
+41% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 The-JokerCTR | Yesavg 26.1¢ | $299.89 | $424.96 | +$125.07 | 68% 1488-691 (2179) |
 viniiCTR | Yesavg 26.1¢ | $177.44 | $251.86 | +$74.42 | 74% 2702-970 (3672) |
ME melonmanmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.3¢ | $59.45 | $77.82 | +$18.37 | 65% 483-260 (743) |
 BiDiFakePolls<$100 | Noavg 54.9¢ | $63.7 | $73.15 | +$9.45 | 58% 172-124 (296) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 70.8¢ | $23.21 | $20.66 | -$2.55 | 32% 4329-9310 (13639) |
The-JokerCTRInvested
$299.89
Value
$424.96
PnL
+$125.07
Record
68%
1488-691 (2179)
viniiCTRInvested
$177.44
Value
$251.86
PnL
+$74.42
Record
74%
2702-970 (3672)
Invested
$59.45
Value
$77.82
PnL
+$18.37
Record
65%
483-260 (743)
BiDiFakePolls<$100Invested
$63.7
Value
$73.15
PnL
+$9.45
Record
58%
172-124 (296)
Invested
$23.21
Value
$20.66
PnL
-$2.55
Record
32%
4329-9310 (13639)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.