Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Reinier de Ridder be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$1.85

Combined PnL

-$62.29

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$1.13

Total Shares1

Combined PnL+$0

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.72

Total Shares1,441

Combined PnL-$62.29

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$1.13	$1.13	+$0	32% 6357-13253 (19610)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yes	$0.53	$0.53	-$54.63	61% 15575-9879 (25454)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$1.34	$0.13	-$1.2	17% 4179-19735 (23914)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$4.41	$0.04	-$4.37	50% 473-472 (945)
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$2.11	$0.02	-$2.09	40% 121-184 (305)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

6357-13253 (19610)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$54.63

Record

61%

15575-9879 (25454)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.34

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$1.2

Record

17%

4179-19735 (23914)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.41

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$4.37

Record

50%

473-472 (945)

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.11

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.09

Record

40%

121-184 (305)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.