Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 100¢ · $282 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 29%
$282.47
-$44.94
99.3¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
739h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 99¢ | $184.34 | $185.46 | +$1.12 | 77% 11689-3584 (15273) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $24 | $86 | -$0.09 | 56% 3736-2985 (6721) |
 paddaaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $40.12 | $4.28 | -$35.84 | 56% 839-647 (1486) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.63 | $4.2 | -$5.03 | 21% 2284-8684 (10968) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $1 | $0.7 | -$0.3 | 43% 2040-2652 (4692) |
0X 0x6528e4dfAE95B1a096C3ccE287Fb44C96C802006-1790896469009CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.25 | $0.43 | +$0.18 | 16% 5-27 (32) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $5.41 | $0.42 | -$4.99 | 25% 181-537 (718) |
Invested
$184.34
Value
$185.46
PnL
+$1.12
Record
77%
11689-3584 (15273)
Invested
$24
Value
$86
PnL
-$0.09
Record
56%
3736-2985 (6721)
paddaaCTR<$100Invested
$40.12
Value
$4.28
PnL
-$35.84
Record
56%
839-647 (1486)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.63
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$5.03
Record
21%
2284-8684 (10968)
Invested
$1
Value
$0.7
PnL
-$0.3
Record
43%
2040-2652 (4692)
Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.43
PnL
+$0.18
Record
16%
5-27 (32)
Invested
$5.41
Value
$0.42
PnL
-$4.99
Record
25%
181-537 (718)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.