Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Real Sociedad finish first in UEL league phase?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $250 held · ends Feb 28, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Feb 28, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$249.82

Combined PnL

$63.97

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$249.82

Total Shares2,292

Combined PnL+$63.97

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yes	$89.82	$89.82	-$19.21	31% 3287-7149 (10436)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.09	$46.92	+$46.82	47% 3850-4311 (8161)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$8.92	$43.6	+$34.68	40% 6569-9849 (16418)
thefakenickCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$8.53	$38.79	-$8.29	50% 925-910 (1835)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.03	$7.74	+$7.71	27% 2545-6952 (9497)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.03	$5.45	+$5.42	17% 1360-6591 (7951)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yes	$5.45	$5.45	-$0.58	28% 579-1489 (2068)
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.87	$4.97	-$1.06	61% 864-548 (1412)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.02	$4.91	-$1.05	49% 6588-6939 (13527)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$2.18	-$0.47	17% 396-1983 (2379)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.82

Value

$89.82

PnL

-$19.21

Record

31%

3287-7149 (10436)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$46.92

PnL

+$46.82

Record

47%

3850-4311 (8161)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.92

Value

$43.6

PnL

+$34.68

Record

40%

6569-9849 (16418)

thefakenickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.53

Value

$38.79

PnL

-$8.29

Record

50%

925-910 (1835)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$7.74

PnL

+$7.71

Record

27%

2545-6952 (9497)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$5.45

PnL

+$5.42

Record

17%

1360-6591 (7951)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.45

Value

$5.45

PnL

-$0.58

Record

28%

579-1489 (2068)

P1kasoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.87

Value

$4.97

PnL

-$1.06

Record

61%

864-548 (1412)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$4.91

PnL

-$1.05

Record

49%

6588-6939 (13527)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.47

Record

17%

396-1983 (2379)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.