Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $103 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

Total Value

$102.88

Combined PnL

-$22.72

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$88.19

Total Shares88

Combined PnL+$1.37

Yes6 traders

Total Value$14.52

Total Shares5,809

Combined PnL-$24.09

No — 14%Yes — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

4518h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Gr33d<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$86.82	$88.19	+$1.37	79% 2743-714 (3457)
CR crckrCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$3.8	$9.23	+$5.54	31% 739-1614 (2353)
Gucky-45CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$32.96	$4.94	-$28.01	30% 671-1565 (2236)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.2	$0.13	-$0.08	17% 4506-22060 (26566)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.7	$0.1	-$0.57	48% 1991-2135 (4126)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.53	$0.08	-$0.45	49% 6334-6486 (12820)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.57	$0.04	-$0.53	51% 2598-2533 (5131)

Gr33d<$100

Invested

$86.82

Value

$88.19

PnL

+$1.37

Record

79%

2743-714 (3457)

crckrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.8

Value

$9.23

PnL

+$5.54

Record

31%

739-1614 (2353)

Gucky-45CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.96

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$28.01

Record

30%

671-1565 (2236)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.08

Record

17%

4506-22060 (26566)

cowcatCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.7

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.57

Record

48%

1991-2135 (4126)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.45

Record

49%

6334-6486 (12820)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.53

Record

51%

2598-2533 (5131)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

4518h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7523.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

7623.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.