Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (81%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Real Madrid reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League quarterfinal?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 20¢ · $654 held · ends Mar 20, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 100%
$653.82
-$266.66
25.3¢ → 19.5¢
-23% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 81%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1CTR | Noavg 26¢ | $778.18 | $548.27 | -$229.92 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Noavg 20.8¢ | $83.29 | $62 | -$21.29 | 41% 2124-3048 (5172) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $68.75 | $36.01 | -$13.09 | 40% 6508-9755 (16263) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 26¢ | $11.52 | $5.72 | -$1.84 | 58% 21138-15369 (36507) |
 thefakenickCTR<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $2.34 | $1.83 | -$0.52 | 50% 922-907 (1829) |
Invested
$778.18
Value
$548.27
PnL
-$229.92
Record
64%
1050-593 (1643)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$83.29
Value
$62
PnL
-$21.29
Record
41%
2124-3048 (5172)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$68.75
Value
$36.01
PnL
-$13.09
Record
40%
6508-9755 (16263)
Invested
$11.52
Value
$5.72
PnL
-$1.84
Record
58%
21138-15369 (36507)
thefakenickCTR<$100Invested
$2.34
Value
$1.83
PnL
-$0.52
Record
50%
922-907 (1829)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.