Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $7 held · ends Jun 15, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Jun 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$7.41

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Entry

4.2¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$7.41

Total Shares14,825

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO forgotmydinnerCTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$333.33	$4	-$329.33	19% 49-212 (261)
DO donthackmeCTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$149.06	$1.79	-$147.27	73% 11074-4085 (15159)
CI cigarettesCTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$4.0K	$1.03	-$244.12	56% 18363-14703 (33066)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$27.12	$0.33	-$26.8	17% 1023-4939 (5962)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$12.06	$0.15	-$11.94	49% 9047-9526 (18573)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$6.29	$0.08	-$6.22	17% 221-1065 (1286)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$2.33	$0.03	-$2.31	23% 177-599 (776)
VI VictorLudorumCTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$6.8K	$0.02	-$278.42	55% 6024-5008 (11032)

forgotmydinnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$333.33

Value

PnL

-$329.33

Record

19%

49-212 (261)

donthackmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$149.06

Value

$1.79

PnL

-$147.27

Record

73%

11074-4085 (15159)

cigarettesCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,002.38

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$244.12

Record

56%

18363-14703 (33066)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.12

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$26.8

Record

17%

1023-4939 (5962)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.06

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$11.94

Record

49%

9047-9526 (18573)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.29

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$6.22

Record

17%

221-1065 (1286)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.33

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.31

Record

23%

177-599 (776)

VictorLudorumCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,819.42

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$278.42

Record

55%

6024-5008 (11032)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.