Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Raquel Carter win the 2026 Lexington mayoral election?

1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 27¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$262.84

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$329.07

Total Shares1,492

Combined PnL+$262.66

No1 trader

Total Value$13.21

Total Shares18

Combined PnL+$0.18

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoiderARB<$100	Yesavg 20.7¢	$963.87	$1.2K	+$250.56	53% 1129-1013 (2142)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.7¢	$681.02	$890.33	+$209.31
└ No leg	Noavg 72.3¢	$321.04	$324.11	+$41.25
FrozenParasiteCTR	Yes	$329.07	$329.07	+$262.66	55% 455-368 (823)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 78.8¢	$103.1	$100	-$2.7	21% 300-1130 (1430)
└ No leg	Noavg 78.8¢	$78.8	$73	-$5.8
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23.8¢	$23.84	$27	+$3.1
RL RLWG<$100	Noavg 72¢	$13.03	$13.21	+$0.18	50% 7836-7860 (15696)

SnapElectionAvoiderARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$963.87

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$250.56

Record

53%

1129-1013 (2142)

Both legs:

Yes$681.0220.7¢+$209.31

No$321.0472.3¢+$41.25

FrozenParasiteCTR

Yes

Invested

$329.07

Value

$329.07

PnL

+$262.66

Record

55%

455-368 (823)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$103.1

Value

$100

PnL

-$2.7

Record

21%

300-1130 (1430)

Both legs:

No$78.878.8¢-$5.8

Yes$23.8423.8¢+$3.1

RLWG<$100

Invested

$13.03

Value

$13.21

PnL

+$0.18

Record

50%

7836-7860 (15696)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.8%

27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$247.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

347.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.