Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (79%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Raphinha (Barcelona) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 La Liga season?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 21¢ · $1K held · ends Jun 15, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$1.0K
$159.62
24.9¢ → 20.5¢
-17% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Late
590h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 49.9¢ | $509.41 | $618.18 | +$82.1 | 53% 6198-5435 (11633) |
LE leegunnerCTR | Yesavg 18.4¢ | $103.72 | $216.89 | +$113.17 | 41% 1264-1788 (3052) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 45.3¢ | $273.16 | $113.1 | -$150.14 | 36% 14458-25898 (40356) |
 IstarothCTR | Yesavg 42¢ | $336.4 | $82.2 | -$177.6 | 36% 273-494 (767) |
WO WoohxCTR | Yesavg 13.4¢ | $156.34 | $7.01 | +$292.09 | 56% 110-86 (196) |
Invested
$509.41
Value
$618.18
PnL
+$82.1
Record
53%
6198-5435 (11633)
Invested
$103.72
Value
$216.89
PnL
+$113.17
Record
41%
1264-1788 (3052)
Invested
$273.16
Value
$113.1
PnL
-$150.14
Record
36%
14458-25898 (40356)
IstarothCTRInvested
$336.4
Value
$82.2
PnL
-$177.6
Record
36%
273-494 (767)
Invested
$156.34
Value
$7.01
PnL
+$292.09
Record
56%
110-86 (196)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.