Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (92%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 8.0¢ · $74 held · ends Apr 18, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$74.26
-$44.12
12.8¢ → 8¢
-37% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $89.76 | $55.24 | -$34.52 | 51% 40-38 (78) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $15.6 | $9.6 | -$6 | 12% 21-155 (176) |
SP SPLPBCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $8.4 | $4.8 | -$3.6 | 23% 511-1698 (2209) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $4.63 | $4.63 | +$0 | — 5-1 (6) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.