Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 100¢ · $524 held · ends Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$523.69

Combined PnL

$39.89

Smart Money Entry

96.4¢ → 99.9¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$523.12

Total Shares524

Combined PnL+$46.42

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.53

Total Shares186

Combined PnL-$6.53

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	No	$303.07	$303.07	+$0.18	44% 2318-2942 (5260)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Noavg 98.5¢	$187.71	$190.3	+$2.59	26% 7359-21128 (28487)
balthazar	Noavg 82.8¢	$165.41	$29.76	+$43.66	52% 31052-29024 (60076)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$1.61	$0.28	-$1.33	22% 369-1344 (1713)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.3¢	$3.16	$0.12	-$3.04	34% 2124-4068 (6192)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$2.29	$0.12	-$2.16	17% 1360-6591 (7951)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$0.01	-$0	58% 21381-15510 (36891)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$303.07

Value

$303.07

PnL

+$0.18

Record

44%

2318-2942 (5260)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Invested

$187.71

Value

$190.3

PnL

+$2.59

Record

26%

7359-21128 (28487)

balthazar

Invested

$165.41

Value

$29.76

PnL

+$43.66

Record

52%

31052-29024 (60076)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.61

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$1.33

Record

22%

369-1344 (1713)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.16

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$3.04

Record

34%

2124-4068 (6192)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.29

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$2.16

Record

17%

1360-6591 (7951)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

21381-15510 (36891)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.