Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 34¢ · $401 held · ended Feb 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$400.57
-$10.67
43.1¢ → 33.5¢
-22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
13 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cowcatCTR | Yesavg 41.1¢ | $127.24 | $205.31 | +$78.07 | 53% 1572-1395 (2967) |
 HyperlongCTR | Yesavg 48¢ | $320.99 | $99.6 | -$115.38 | 43% 233-314 (547) |
FO Folletin<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $67.57 | $91.7 | +$24.13 | 69% 423-188 (611) |
 UbuntuTrading<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $1.35 | $2.3 | +$0.95 | 56% 3078-2437 (5515) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $0.11 | $1.67 | +$1.57 | 36% 636-1125 (1761) |
Invested
$127.24
Value
$205.31
PnL
+$78.07
Record
53%
1572-1395 (2967)
HyperlongCTRInvested
$320.99
Value
$99.6
PnL
-$115.38
Record
43%
233-314 (547)
Invested
$67.57
Value
$91.7
PnL
+$24.13
Record
69%
423-188 (611)
UbuntuTrading<$100Invested
$1.35
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$0.95
Record
56%
3078-2437 (5515)
Invested
$0.11
Value
$1.67
PnL
+$1.57
Record
36%
636-1125 (1761)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.