Will Ra'am win exactly 6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 69¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
$19.78
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 mr.ozi | Noavg 74.5¢ | $977.52 | $992.94 | +$15.42 | 69% 1231-562 (1793) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 74.7¢ | $547.41 | $490.95 | +$8.76 | 28% 280-709 (989) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 74.7¢ | $347.82 | $354 | -$2.98 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.9¢ | $125.21 | $136.95 | +$11.74 | |
ME melonmanmCTR | Yesavg 32.5¢ | $151.72 | $113.33 | -$38.39 | 65% 484-260 (744) |
 cambridgeisaacCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $33.8 | $58.8 | +$25 | 57% 1102-821 (1923) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $28.78 | $46.53 | +$17.75 | 53% 6290-5520 (11810) |
mr.oziInvested
$977.52
Value
$992.94
PnL
+$15.42
Record
69%
1231-562 (1793)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$547.41
Value
$490.95
PnL
+$8.76
Record
28%
280-709 (989)
Both legs:
Invested
$151.72
Value
$113.33
PnL
-$38.39
Record
65%
484-260 (744)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100Invested
$33.8
Value
$58.8
PnL
+$25
Record
57%
1102-821 (1923)
Invested
$28.78
Value
$46.53
PnL
+$17.75
Record
53%
6290-5520 (11810)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.