Will Ra'am win exactly 5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 95¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$11.3K
-$333.83
91.3¢ → 94.9¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 mr.ozi | Noavg 91.9¢ | $9.9K | $9.9K | +$58.32 | 69% 1230-562 (1792) |
 qizhan | Noavg 90¢ | $1.3K | $884.01 | -$388.59 | — 4-3 (7) |
ME melonmanm | Noavg 78.1¢ | $340.04 | $370.27 | +$17.01 | 65% 483-260 (743) |
 BiDiFakePollsCTR | Yesavg 10.2¢ | $127.39 | $90 | -$7.45 | 58% 172-124 (296) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $32.25 | $52.33 | +$20.08 | 41% 1952-2757 (4709) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.4¢ | $49.83 | $16.72 | -$33.11 | 74% 2702-970 (3672) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.2¢ | $0.46 | $0.38 | -$0.08 | 53% 6286-5517 (11803) |
mr.oziInvested
$9,876.62
Value
$9.9K
PnL
+$58.32
Record
69%
1230-562 (1792)
qizhanInvested
$1,272.61
Value
$884.01
PnL
-$388.59
Record
—
4-3 (7)
Invested
$340.04
Value
$370.27
PnL
+$17.01
Record
65%
483-260 (743)
BiDiFakePollsCTRInvested
$127.39
Value
$90
PnL
-$7.45
Record
58%
172-124 (296)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$32.25
Value
$52.33
PnL
+$20.08
Record
41%
1952-2757 (4709)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$49.83
Value
$16.72
PnL
-$33.11
Record
74%
2702-970 (3672)
Invested
$0.46
Value
$0.38
PnL
-$0.08
Record
53%
6286-5517 (11803)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.