Will Ra'am win exactly 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 95¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.0K
-$142.04
92.9¢ → 95¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x25db6cA5935ae858A5c1F2dCD5c62939805328dE-1770665598557 | Noavg 96¢ | $727.38 | $611.9 | -$115.47 | — |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 91.2¢ | $271.96 | $186.13 | +$13.51 | 53% 6308-5527 (11835) |
 viniiCTR | Yesavg 19.7¢ | $72.22 | $115.69 | +$43.46 | 74% 2703-970 (3673) |
 cambridgeisaac<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $85 | $80.8 | -$19.9 | 57% 1102-822 (1924) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 59.3¢ | $22.26 | $30.34 | +$8.08 | 32% 4334-9323 (13657) |
 archaicCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $534.23 | $4.38 | -$71.73 | 85% 1874-338 (2212) |
Invested
$727.38
Value
$611.9
PnL
-$115.47
Record
—
Invested
$271.96
Value
$186.13
PnL
+$13.51
Record
53%
6308-5527 (11835)
viniiCTRInvested
$72.22
Value
$115.69
PnL
+$43.46
Record
74%
2703-970 (3673)
cambridgeisaac<$100Invested
$85
Value
$80.8
PnL
-$19.9
Record
57%
1102-822 (1924)
Invested
$22.26
Value
$30.34
PnL
+$8.08
Record
32%
4334-9323 (13657)
archaicCTRInvested
$534.23
Value
$4.38
PnL
-$71.73
Record
85%
1874-338 (2212)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.