Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 71¢ · $648 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$648.47
$2.13
77.3¢ → 70.5¢
-9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
695h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 77.5¢ | $1.8K | $520.07 | -$13.62 | 56% 15363-11918 (27281) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 22.2¢ | $42.62 | $56.32 | +$13.7 | 53% 6686-5884 (12570) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 74.9¢ | $50.13 | $47.48 | -$2.65 | 56% 14220-11020 (25240) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Noavg 23.6¢ | $19.14 | $23.88 | +$4.74 | 36% 2079-3718 (5797) |
 Donny.T<$100 | Yesavg 81.6¢ | $0.76 | $0.71 | -$0.05 | 72% 484-186 (670) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$1,806.95
Value
$520.07
PnL
-$13.62
Record
56%
15363-11918 (27281)
Invested
$42.62
Value
$56.32
PnL
+$13.7
Record
53%
6686-5884 (12570)
Invested
$50.13
Value
$47.48
PnL
-$2.65
Record
56%
14220-11020 (25240)
Invested
$19.14
Value
$23.88
PnL
+$4.74
Record
36%
2079-3718 (5797)
Donny.T<$100Invested
$0.76
Value
$0.71
PnL
-$0.05
Record
72%
484-186 (670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.