Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Puka Nacua win the 2026 NFL MVP?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Mar 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Mar 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.3

Combined PnL

-$50.65

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$1.3

Total Shares2,175

Combined PnL-$50.65

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

148h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$3.28	$0.33	-$5.34	50% 65438-65762 (131200)
NO northstockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$12.72	$0.3	-$12.42	37% 262-444 (706)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$13.48	$0.27	-$13.21	38% 1794-2925 (4719)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$5	$0.1	-$4.9	54% 3217-2785 (6002)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$2.96	$0.07	-$2.89	27% 3471-9223 (12694)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$3.13	$0.06	-$3.06	43% 15297-20659 (35956)
CB 0xcb8d...8d08CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$3	$0.06	-$2.94	— 1-12 (13)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$2.35	$0.05	-$2.3	38% 2885-4702 (7587)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$2.1	$0.04	-$2.06	35% 1099-2047 (3146)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$1.5	$0.03	-$1.47	15% 110-613 (723)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$0.07	$0	-$0.07	45% 7284-8727 (16011)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.28

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$5.34

Record

50%

65438-65762 (131200)

northstockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.72

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$12.42

Record

37%

262-444 (706)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.48

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$13.21

Record

38%

1794-2925 (4719)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$4.9

Record

54%

3217-2785 (6002)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.96

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$2.89

Record

27%

3471-9223 (12694)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.13

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$3.06

Record

43%

15297-20659 (35956)

0xcb8d...8d08CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$2.94

Record

—

1-12 (13)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.35

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.3

Record

38%

2885-4702 (7587)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.1

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$2.06

Record

35%

1099-2047 (3146)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.47

Record

15%

110-613 (723)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

PnL

-$0.07

Record

45%

7284-8727 (16011)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

148h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.