Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will PSOE win the most seats in Girona in the 2026 Spanish general election?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 43¢ · $112 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$112.42
$43
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | $24.3 | $38.7 | +$14.4 | 50% 4487-4433 (8920) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Noavg 26.2¢ | $20.98 | $34.46 | +$13.48 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 26¢ | $18.54 | $30.66 | +$12.12 | 35% 2886-5323 (8209) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $5.6 | $8.6 | +$3 | 52% 5301-4808 (10109) |
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$24.3
Value
$38.7
PnL
+$14.4
Record
50%
4487-4433 (8920)
Invested
$20.98
Value
$34.46
PnL
+$13.48
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$18.54
Value
$30.66
PnL
+$12.12
Record
35%
2886-5323 (8209)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$8.6
PnL
+$3
Record
52%
5301-4808 (10109)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.