Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$1.9K
$287.53
84¢ → 98.7¢
+18% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 -Yang- | Yesavg 83.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.9K | +$305.87 | 82% 275-61 (336) |
8D 8dcc906a9b<$100 | Yesavg 86.3¢ | $17.82 | $19.13 | +$1.31 | 32% 50-104 (154) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 2.3¢ | $17 | $7.44 | -$5.32 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100 | Noavg 1¢ | $8.65 | $4.73 | -$3.92 | 69% 404-180 (584) |
 yen4uCTR<$100 | Noavg 4.1¢ | $11.38 | $1.96 | -$10.4 | 86% 810-136 (946) |
-Yang-Invested
$1,633.91
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$305.87
Record
82%
275-61 (336)
Invested
$17.82
Value
$19.13
PnL
+$1.31
Record
32%
50-104 (154)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$17
Value
$7.44
PnL
-$5.32
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
Invested
$8.65
Value
$4.73
PnL
-$3.92
Record
69%
404-180 (584)
yen4uCTR<$100Invested
$11.38
Value
$1.96
PnL
-$10.4
Record
86%
810-136 (946)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.