Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$2.8K
$711.25
74.5¢ → 100¢
+34% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
635h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 -Yang- | Yesavg 64.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.9K | +$676.37 | 82% 265-59 (324) |
TP tphhh | Yesavg 98.9¢ | $831.2 | $794.22 | +$8.82 | 91% 628-59 (687) |
AA aa9872aa<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $45.6 | $79.96 | +$34.36 | — 0-1 (1) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 0.4¢ | $4.17 | $0.5 | -$3.67 | 18% 519-2317 (2836) |
 yen4uCTR<$100 | Noavg 6¢ | $4.68 | $0.04 | -$4.64 | 86% 778-131 (909) |
-Yang-Invested
$1,226.97
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$676.37
Record
82%
265-59 (324)
Invested
$831.2
Value
$794.22
PnL
+$8.82
Record
91%
628-59 (687)
Invested
$45.6
Value
$79.96
PnL
+$34.36
Record
—
0-1 (1)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$4.17
Value
$0.5
PnL
-$3.67
Record
18%
519-2317 (2836)
yen4uCTR<$100Invested
$4.68
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$4.64
Record
86%
778-131 (909)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.