Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 99¢ · $4K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$3.8K
$818.1
77.6¢ → 99.5¢
+28% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-60 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
666h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 -Yang- | Yesavg 75.5¢ | $2.7K | $3.5K | +$838.03 | 81% 265-61 (326) |
TP tphhh | Yesavg 99.7¢ | $332.33 | $332.33 | +$0 | 91% 629-59 (688) |
 yen4uCTR<$100 | Noavg 11.7¢ | $16.35 | $3.77 | -$14.96 | 86% 779-131 (910) |
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100 | Noavg 1.6¢ | $2.19 | $1.46 | -$0.73 | 70% 399-175 (574) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 3.2¢ | $5.12 | $0.88 | -$4.24 | 61% 20926-13319 (34245) |
-Yang-Invested
$2,658.81
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$838.03
Record
81%
265-61 (326)
Invested
$332.33
Value
$332.33
PnL
+$0
Record
91%
629-59 (688)
yen4uCTR<$100Invested
$16.35
Value
$3.77
PnL
-$14.96
Record
86%
779-131 (910)
Invested
$2.19
Value
$1.46
PnL
-$0.73
Record
70%
399-175 (574)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$5.12
Value
$0.88
PnL
-$4.24
Record
61%
20926-13319 (34245)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.