Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2027?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$2.9K
$249.93
87.6¢ → 98.8¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SE SeniorLaghetto | Yesavg 87.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.6K | +$124.54 | 69% 403-177 (580) |
8D 8dcc906a9b | Yesavg 87.9¢ | $939.94 | $1.1K | +$105.34 | 37% 44-75 (119) |
 -Yang- | Yesavg 85.1¢ | $170.2 | $197.6 | +$25.7 | 81% 265-61 (326) |
 yen4uCTR<$100 | Noavg 4¢ | $9.42 | $3.77 | -$5.65 | 86% 789-133 (922) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.