Will PP win the most seats in León in the 2026 Spanish general election?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 64¢ · $209 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$208.87
$15.73
Research grade
NeutralYes at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith | Yesavg 86¢ | $139.32 | $125.55 | -$13.77 | — 8-9 (17) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $14.35 | $36.9 | +$22.55 | 50% 4490-4436 (8926) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 21.8¢ | $25.88 | $26.66 | +$0.79 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Noavg 13¢ | $9.75 | $16.88 | +$7.13 | 4% 15-322 (337) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $3.84 | $2.88 | -$0.96 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
HaradwaithInvested
$139.32
Value
$125.55
PnL
-$13.77
Record
—
8-9 (17)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$14.35
Value
$36.9
PnL
+$22.55
Record
50%
4490-4436 (8926)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$25.88
Value
$26.66
PnL
+$0.79
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
Invested
$9.75
Value
$16.88
PnL
+$7.13
Record
4%
15-322 (337)
Invested
$3.84
Value
$2.88
PnL
-$0.96
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.