Will Portugal win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 91¢ · $2K held · ends Jun 14, 2027

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Mon, Jun 14, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$12.88

Smart Money Entry

88.3¢ → 90.5¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,092

Combined PnL+$11.92

Yes2 traders

Total Value$10.89

Total Shares98

Combined PnL+$0.96

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 88.3¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$7.95	42% 3180-4317 (7497)
TimeTravelerARB<$100	Yesavg 9.3¢	$158.66	$182.65	+$15.88	41% 2019-2860 (4879)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 9.3¢	$93.6	$112.5	-$1.77
└ No leg	Noavg 68.3¢	$53.93	$70.15	+$17.65
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 86.9¢	$159.12	$162.74	+$3.62	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 85.9¢	$141.42	$146.34	+$4.93	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
PI PiEDawg<$100	Noavg 90.2¢	$94.76	$92.42	-$1.33	49% 1756-1842 (3598)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 87.1¢	$43.57	$44.43	+$0.85	31% 3488-7778 (11266)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 94.4¢	$37.76	$35.54	-$2.22	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 91¢	$29.12	$28.43	-$0.69	44% 6482-8172 (14654)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 95¢	$18.44	$17.25	-$1.19	43% 3133-4188 (7321)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$6.84	$7.54	+$0.7	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.3¢	$3.09	$3.35	+$0.26	18% 4284-20059 (24343)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$1,323.64

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$7.95

Record

42%

3180-4317 (7497)

TimeTravelerARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$158.66

Value

$182.65

PnL

+$15.88

Record

41%

2019-2860 (4879)

Both legs:

Yes$93.69.3¢-$1.77

No$53.9368.3¢+$17.65

qwen300.fund

Invested

$159.12

Value

$162.74

PnL

+$3.62

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

godblessme2026

Invested

$141.42

Value

$146.34

PnL

+$4.93

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

PiEDawg<$100

Invested

$94.76

Value

$92.42

PnL

-$1.33

Record

49%

1756-1842 (3598)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$43.57

Value

$44.43

PnL

+$0.85

Record

31%

3488-7778 (11266)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$37.76

Value

$35.54

PnL

-$2.22

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

korda77<$100

Invested

$29.12

Value

$28.43

PnL

-$0.69

Record

44%

6482-8172 (14654)

merod<$100

Invested

$18.44

Value

$17.25

PnL

-$1.19

Record

43%

3133-4188 (7321)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.84

Value

$7.54

PnL

+$0.7

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.09

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$0.26

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.