Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
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8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Dec 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 100%
$0.43
-$18.44
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $5.88 | $0.23 | -$5.65 | 24% 86-270 (356) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $3.17 | $0.05 | -$3.12 | 30% 2929-6852 (9781) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $3.07 | $0.05 | -$3.02 | 44% 1109-1422 (2531) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $2.44 | $0.04 | -$2.4 | 47% 4794-5409 (10203) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $1.51 | $0.02 | -$1.48 | 36% 506-908 (1414) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $1.23 | $0.02 | -$1.21 | 12% 6-43 (49) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $0.9 | $0.01 | -$0.89 | 4% 3-68 (71) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $0.68 | $0.01 | -$0.67 | 39% 1379-2181 (3560) |
Invested
$5.88
Value
$0.23
PnL
-$5.65
Record
24%
86-270 (356)
Invested
$3.17
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$3.12
Record
30%
2929-6852 (9781)
Invested
$3.07
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$3.02
Record
44%
1109-1422 (2531)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.44
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$2.4
Record
47%
4794-5409 (10203)
Invested
$1.51
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.48
Record
36%
506-908 (1414)
Invested
$1.23
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.21
Record
12%
6-43 (49)
Invested
$0.9
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.89
Record
4%
3-68 (71)
Invested
$0.68
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.67
Record
39%
1379-2181 (3560)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.