Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Player A win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$31.31

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,444

Combined PnL-$31.31

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

116h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BiggggggggCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$7.31	$567.86	-$15.12	32% 3310-7182 (10492)
DG DG-NOCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$4.24	$250	-$3.99	39% 681-1087 (1768)
UbuntuTradingCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$1.34	$199.99	-$6.47	55% 3185-2641 (5826)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.24	$61.35	-$1.98	38% 7198-11835 (19033)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.72	$32.5	-$1.05	27% 651-1747 (2398)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yes	$32.07	$32.07	-$1.04	— 6-1 (7)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$10	-$0.32	53% 24124-21175 (45299)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yes	$8.93	$7.17	-$0.36	49% 6601-6966 (13567)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.24	$1	-$0.03	17% 1373-6664 (8037)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1.02	$0.06	-$0.96	28% 588-1508 (2096)

BiggggggggCTR

Yes

Invested

$7.31

Value

$567.86

PnL

-$15.12

Record

32%

3310-7182 (10492)

DG-NOCTR

Yes

Invested

$4.24

Value

$250

PnL

-$3.99

Record

39%

681-1087 (1768)

UbuntuTradingCTR

Yes

Invested

$1.34

Value

$199.99

PnL

-$6.47

Record

55%

3185-2641 (5826)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$61.35

PnL

-$1.98

Record

38%

7198-11835 (19033)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.72

Value

$32.5

PnL

-$1.05

Record

27%

651-1747 (2398)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.07

Value

$32.07

PnL

-$1.04

Record

—

6-1 (7)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.32

Record

53%

24124-21175 (45299)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.93

Value

$7.17

PnL

-$0.36

Record

49%

6601-6966 (13567)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

PnL

-$0.03

Record

17%

1373-6664 (8037)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.96

Record

28%

588-1508 (2096)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

116h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.