Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 73¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 24, 2025
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$39.5
74¢ → 73.2¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
3738h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 61.5¢ | $745.26 | $541.48 | +$42.82 | 36% 14106-25213 (39319) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 61.5¢ | $418.09 | $363.8 | -$72.33 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 16.1¢ | $129.31 | $177.68 | +$115.15 | |
 archaic | Noavg 76.5¢ | $489.61 | $452.75 | -$36.85 | 85% 1847-335 (2182) |
 FrozenParasite | No | $114.34 | $114.34 | +$55.69 | 55% 426-349 (775) |
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100 | Noavg 2.1¢ | $19.68 | $15.75 | +$20.96 | 33% 5787-11665 (17452) |
BA balerinacapuchina<$100 | Noavg 87.9¢ | $1.81 | $1.51 | -$0.3 | 73% 174-66 (240) |
Invested
$745.26
Value
$541.48
PnL
+$42.82
Record
36%
14106-25213 (39319)
Both legs:
archaicInvested
$489.61
Value
$452.75
PnL
-$36.85
Record
85%
1847-335 (2182)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$114.34
Value
$114.34
PnL
+$55.69
Record
55%
426-349 (775)
Invested
$19.68
Value
$15.75
PnL
+$20.96
Record
33%
5787-11665 (17452)
Invested
$1.81
Value
$1.51
PnL
-$0.3
Record
73%
174-66 (240)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.