Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Placeholder BB have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.0¢ · $136 held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
11
Yes 100%
$136.06
$0
0.3¢ → —
-100% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
11 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Mature
37h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $84.63 | $84.63 | +$0 | 31% 3260-7122 (10382) |
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $22.98 | $22.98 | +$0 | 39% 10157-15760 (25917) |
RA ratedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $21.76 | $21.76 | +$0 | 29% 2941-7182 (10123) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $3.74 | $3.74 | +$0 | 33% 6996-13985 (20981) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $1.82 | $1.82 | +$0 | 72% 13881-5445 (19326) |
AK akrollCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.39 | $0.39 | +$0 | 31% 509-1156 (1665) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.37 | $0.37 | +$0 | 30% 491-1165 (1656) |
PI PiEDawgCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.16 | $0.16 | +$0 | 35% 1832-3405 (5237) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.16 | $0.16 | +$0 | 37% 4041-6779 (10820) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.03 | $0.03 | +$0 | 49% 6566-6933 (13499) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.01 | $0.01 | +$0 | 16% 385-1969 (2354) |
Invested
$84.63
Value
$84.63
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
3260-7122 (10382)
Invested
$22.98
Value
$22.98
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
10157-15760 (25917)
Invested
$21.76
Value
$21.76
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
2941-7182 (10123)
Invested
$3.74
Value
$3.74
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
6996-13985 (20981)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$1.82
Value
$1.82
PnL
+$0
Record
72%
13881-5445 (19326)
Invested
$0.39
Value
$0.39
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
509-1156 (1665)
Invested
$0.37
Value
$0.37
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
491-1165 (1656)
Invested
$0.16
Value
$0.16
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
1832-3405 (5237)
Invested
$0.16
Value
$0.16
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
4041-6779 (10820)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.03
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
6566-6933 (13499)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0
Record
16%
385-1969 (2354)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.