Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Placeholder AJ have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.0¢ · $106 held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 100%
$105.76
$0
0.3¢ → —
-100% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $92.86 | $92.86 | +$0 | 32% 3291-7153 (10444) |
PO pollo07CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $3.66 | $3.66 | +$0 | 31% 510-1150 (1660) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $3.59 | $3.59 | +$0 | 30% 503-1182 (1685) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $3.58 | $3.58 | +$0 | 37% 4060-6783 (10843) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $1.15 | $1.15 | +$0 | 23% 1809-6072 (7881) |
AK akrollCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.85 | $0.85 | +$0 | 31% 520-1171 (1691) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.04 | $0.04 | +$0 | 49% 6592-6945 (13537) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.02 | $0.02 | +$0 | 28% 2890-7443 (10333) |
Invested
$92.86
Value
$92.86
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
3291-7153 (10444)
Invested
$3.66
Value
$3.66
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
510-1150 (1660)
Invested
$3.59
Value
$3.59
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
503-1182 (1685)
Invested
$3.58
Value
$3.58
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
4060-6783 (10843)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$1.15
PnL
+$0
Record
23%
1809-6072 (7881)
Invested
$0.85
Value
$0.85
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
520-1171 (1691)
Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.04
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
6592-6945 (13537)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.02
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
2890-7443 (10333)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.