Will Pablo Picasso's “Le Baiser” sell for between $40m and $50m at auction?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 67¢ · $264 held · ends Nov 18

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$264.35

Combined PnL

-$5.48

Smart Money Entry

70.2¢ → 67.2¢

-4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$108.17

Total Shares418

Combined PnL+$1.5

No8 traders

Total Value$156.18

Total Shares229

Combined PnL-$6.97

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$74.94	$63.23	-$11.71	50% 560-552 (1112)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.9¢	$22.42	$39	+$17.31	47% 1388-1535 (2923)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Noavg 71.8¢	$40.93	$38.28	-$2.34	22% 1869-6625 (8494)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 70.1¢	$56.78	$33.85	-$4.74	16% 1412-7610 (9022)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 70.3¢	$21.09	$20.31	-$0.78	55% 25563-21209 (46772)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 70.4¢	$19.22	$18.48	-$0.74	43% 18663-24360 (43023)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 61.6¢	$11.4	$14.47	+$3.07	15% 5003-29368 (34371)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 72.5¢	$14.5	$13.54	-$0.96	50% 66185-66688 (132873)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 70.2¢	$14.04	$13.54	-$0.5	30% 35477-83899 (119376)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 45.5¢	$10.47	$5.95	-$4.11	16% 418-2236 (2654)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 74¢	$3.7	$3.71	+$0.01	30% 2947-6822 (9769)

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.94

Value

$63.23

PnL

-$11.71

Record

50%

560-552 (1112)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.42

Value

$39

PnL

+$17.31

Record

47%

1388-1535 (2923)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$40.93

Value

$38.28

PnL

-$2.34

Record

22%

1869-6625 (8494)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$56.78

Value

$33.85

PnL

-$4.74

Record

16%

1412-7610 (9022)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$21.09

Value

$20.31

PnL

-$0.78

Record

55%

25563-21209 (46772)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$19.22

Value

$18.48

PnL

-$0.74

Record

43%

18663-24360 (43023)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$11.4

Value

$14.47

PnL

+$3.07

Record

15%

5003-29368 (34371)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$14.5

Value

$13.54

PnL

-$0.96

Record

50%

66185-66688 (132873)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$14.04

Value

$13.54

PnL

-$0.5

Record

30%

35477-83899 (119376)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.47

Value

$5.95

PnL

-$4.11

Record

16%

418-2236 (2654)

123987456<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.71

PnL

+$0.01

Record

30%

2947-6822 (9769)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.2%

67.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.