Will Phil Lord or Christopher Miller win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $482 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$482.14
$0.85
99.2¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Late
189h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday | Noavg 99.1¢ | $176.85 | $177.32 | +$0.47 | 40% 1426-2156 (3582) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.3¢ | $116.56 | $116.64 | +$0.08 | 36% 3058-5353 (8411) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $59.4 | $59.61 | +$0.21 | 53% 5469-4897 (10366) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $48.99 | $48.97 | -$0.02 | 50% 4571-4481 (9052) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $34.89 | $34.84 | -$0.04 | — 2-14 (16) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $29.81 | +$0.11 | 29% 858-2135 (2993) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $14.91 | $14.96 | +$0.05 | 29% 2584-6181 (8765) |
Invested
$176.85
Value
$177.32
PnL
+$0.47
Record
40%
1426-2156 (3582)
LucerysInvested
$116.56
Value
$116.64
PnL
+$0.08
Record
36%
3058-5353 (8411)
Invested
$59.4
Value
$59.61
PnL
+$0.21
Record
53%
5469-4897 (10366)
balthazar<$100Invested
$48.99
Value
$48.97
PnL
-$0.02
Record
50%
4571-4481 (9052)
Invested
$34.89
Value
$34.84
PnL
-$0.04
Record
—
2-14 (16)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$29.81
PnL
+$0.11
Record
29%
858-2135 (2993)
Invested
$14.91
Value
$14.96
PnL
+$0.05
Record
29%
2584-6181 (8765)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.