Will Phantom Blade Zero win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.8K
$27.48
92.8¢ → 94.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495 | Noavg 92.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$27.62 | 45% 13-16 (29) |
AU auros2 | Noavg 93.2¢ | $368.45 | $373.32 | +$4.87 | 84% 66-13 (79) |
 4751346 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $191.27 | $184.2 | -$7.07 | 0% 0-63 (63) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Noavg 93¢ | $148.77 | $151.12 | +$2.35 | 39% 1053-1631 (2684) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $7.52 | $7.23 | -$0.29 | 80% 48-12 (60) |
Invested
$1,100.11
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$27.62
Record
45%
13-16 (29)
Invested
$368.45
Value
$373.32
PnL
+$4.87
Record
84%
66-13 (79)
4751346Invested
$191.27
Value
$184.2
PnL
-$7.07
Record
0%
0-63 (63)
Invested
$148.77
Value
$151.12
PnL
+$2.35
Record
39%
1053-1631 (2684)
Invested
$7.52
Value
$7.23
PnL
-$0.29
Record
80%
48-12 (60)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.