Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 96¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.3K
$281.03
73.8¢ → 96.2¢
+30% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
4844h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 4751346 | Yesavg 62.6¢ | $510.56 | $772.58 | +$262.02 | 72% 1263-483 (1746) |
 Slowroasted | Yesavg 96.7¢ | $425.78 | $418.76 | -$7.24 | 88% 1995-279 (2274) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 0.6¢ | $3.37 | $30.32 | +$23.03 | 21% 2284-8684 (10968) |
GA GaditimaCTR | Noavg 2¢ | $223.09 | $26.19 | -$15.94 | 48% 6234-6890 (13124) |
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100 | Yesavg 25.2¢ | $5.04 | $19.02 | +$19.15 | 32% 6340-13239 (19579) |
4751346Invested
$510.56
Value
$772.58
PnL
+$262.02
Record
72%
1263-483 (1746)
SlowroastedInvested
$425.78
Value
$418.76
PnL
-$7.24
Record
88%
1995-279 (2274)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$3.37
Value
$30.32
PnL
+$23.03
Record
21%
2284-8684 (10968)
Invested
$223.09
Value
$26.19
PnL
-$15.94
Record
48%
6234-6890 (13124)
Invested
$5.04
Value
$19.02
PnL
+$19.15
Record
32%
6340-13239 (19579)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.