Will Peter Farrelly win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $331 held · ends Mar 14, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$330.51
-$0.17
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Mature
33h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.9¢ | $117.28 | $117.22 | -$0.06 | 37% 3161-5372 (8533) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $89.91 | $89.87 | -$0.04 | 14% 60-372 (432) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $35.03 | $35.02 | -$0.02 | — 2-14 (16) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.96 | -$0.01 | 26% 851-2483 (3334) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.96 | -$0.01 | 40% 1447-2158 (3605) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $15.04 | $15.04 | -$0.01 | 30% 2667-6201 (8868) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $13.47 | $13.46 | -$0.01 | 23% 84-282 (366) |
LucerysInvested
$117.28
Value
$117.22
PnL
-$0.06
Record
37%
3161-5372 (8533)
Invested
$89.91
Value
$89.87
PnL
-$0.04
Record
14%
60-372 (432)
Invested
$35.03
Value
$35.02
PnL
-$0.02
Record
—
2-14 (16)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
26%
851-2483 (3334)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
40%
1447-2158 (3605)
Invested
$15.04
Value
$15.04
PnL
-$0.01
Record
30%
2667-6201 (8868)
Invested
$13.47
Value
$13.46
PnL
-$0.01
Record
23%
84-282 (366)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.