Will Pete Aguilar be the next House Majority Leader?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 97¢ · $107 held · ends Jan 3, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$106.55
$0.32
98.3¢ → 97¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
174h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $73.71 | $72.68 | -$1.04 | 28% 825-2133 (2958) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $19.66 | $19.38 | -$0.28 | 52% 5263-4776 (10039) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $8.42 | $8.29 | -$0.13 | 50% 4474-4422 (8896) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $1.95 | $3.51 | +$1.56 | 39% 1043-1626 (2669) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $2.22 | $2.18 | -$0.04 | 25% 1193-3510 (4703) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $0.27 | $0.51 | +$0.25 | 52% 210-197 (407) |
Invested
$73.71
Value
$72.68
PnL
-$1.04
Record
28%
825-2133 (2958)
Invested
$19.66
Value
$19.38
PnL
-$0.28
Record
52%
5263-4776 (10039)
balthazar<$100Invested
$8.42
Value
$8.29
PnL
-$0.13
Record
50%
4474-4422 (8896)
Invested
$1.95
Value
$3.51
PnL
+$1.56
Record
39%
1043-1626 (2669)
Invested
$2.22
Value
$2.18
PnL
-$0.04
Record
25%
1193-3510 (4703)
Invested
$0.27
Value
$0.51
PnL
+$0.25
Record
52%
210-197 (407)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.