Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 19 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
arcWill Person T be elected the next president of South Korea?
19 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.8¢ · $54K held
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
19
Yes 100%
$53.9K
$-20.5K
1.9¢ → 1.8¢
-6% since entry · 14 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
19 of 19 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)19 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
19 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 debasedCTR | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $50.8K | $50.8K | $-1.9K | 57% 2391-1834 (4225) |
 aenews2CTR | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$0 | 60% 1836-1205 (3041) |
 pup1CTR | Yesavg 5.1¢ | $615.24 | $615.24 | -$343.87 | 45% 2010-2414 (4424) |
 NaichliCTR | Yesavg 5¢ | $257.7 | $257.7 | -$144 | 52% 1273-1162 (2435) |
LO Logan.CTR | Yesavg 3.9¢ | $253.49 | $253.49 | -$155.95 | 41% 657-938 (1595) |
 BeneGesseritVoiceCTR | Yesavg 5.2¢ | $104.84 | $104.84 | -$58.59 | 69% 1160-529 (1689) |
 HolyMoses7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $89.3 | $89.3 | +$0 | 50% 1758-1780 (3538) |
 Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.11 | $0.11 | +$0 | 62% 658-398 (1056) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 56% 16369-13116 (29485) |
 DropperCTR | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $1.4K | — | $-1.4K | 69% 1156-515 (1671) |
VI VivianWardCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 84% 3828-726 (4554) |
AL almost-neverCTR | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $580.44 | — | -$580.44 | 44% 168-212 (380) |
 classifiedCTR | Yesavg 2¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 57% 860-647 (1507) |
PE petanimalCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $333.03 | — | -$333.03 | 14% 32-194 (226) |
SM smoltraderCTR | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $370.35 | — | -$370.35 | 36% 83-146 (229) |
BE Better-ManCTR | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $4.9K | — | $-4.9K | — 0-7 (7) |
 LlamaEnjoyerCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | $-9.2K | 82% 2163-480 (2643) |
IN interstellaarCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$11.75 | 76% 1411-441 (1852) |
 DragontreeCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 59% 1298-914 (2212) |
debasedCTRInvested
$50,836.71
Value
$50.8K
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
57%
2391-1834 (4225)
aenews2CTRInvested
$1,750.4
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
1836-1205 (3041)
pup1CTRInvested
$615.24
Value
$615.24
PnL
-$343.87
Record
45%
2010-2414 (4424)
NaichliCTRInvested
$257.7
Value
$257.7
PnL
-$144
Record
52%
1273-1162 (2435)
Invested
$253.49
Value
$253.49
PnL
-$155.95
Record
41%
657-938 (1595)
BeneGesseritVoiceCTRInvested
$104.84
Value
$104.84
PnL
-$58.59
Record
69%
1160-529 (1689)
HolyMoses7CTR<$100Invested
$89.3
Value
$89.3
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1758-1780 (3538)
Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100Invested
$0.11
Value
$0.11
PnL
+$0
Record
62%
658-398 (1056)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
16369-13116 (29485)
DropperCTRInvested
$1,425.29
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
69%
1156-515 (1671)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
84%
3828-726 (4554)
Invested
$580.44
Value
—
PnL
-$580.44
Record
44%
168-212 (380)
classifiedCTRInvested
$1,092.84
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
57%
860-647 (1507)
Invested
$333.03
Value
—
PnL
-$333.03
Record
14%
32-194 (226)
Invested
$370.35
Value
—
PnL
-$370.35
Record
36%
83-146 (229)
Invested
$4,911.41
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
—
0-7 (7)
LlamaEnjoyerCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
$-9.2K
Record
82%
2163-480 (2643)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$11.75
Record
76%
1411-441 (1852)
DragontreeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
1298-914 (2212)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.