Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 30 of 30 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Person F be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
30 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $44K held · ends Mar 31, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
30
Yes 100%
$43.8K
$216.59
0.4¢ → 0.1¢
-87% since entry · 24 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
30 of 30 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)30 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
30 traders
Top 2 hold 44%
Freshness
Late
98h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BiggggggggCTR | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $46.08 | $12.7K | -$423.17 | 31% 3237-7104 (10341) |
E4 e46m3CTR | Yes | $6.8K | $6.8K | -$226.61 | 67% 27455-13809 (41264) |
PI PiEDawgCTR | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $4.89 | $4.1K | -$136.63 | 35% 1820-3395 (5215) |
AL alex20011CTR | Yesavg 0¢ | $2.15 | $3.3K | -$110.41 | 37% 4012-6765 (10777) |
WA WarriorHCTR | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.45 | $3.3K | -$110.42 | 17% 1308-6529 (7837) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $2.98 | $2.4K | -$79.32 | 23% 1780-6011 (7791) |
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR | Yesavg 0¢ | $2.14 | $2.3K | -$75.48 | 20% 340-1332 (1672) |
GO god83743894CTR | Yesavg 0¢ | $0 | $2.2K | +$0 | 43% 10590-14068 (24658) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR | Yesavg 0¢ | $0 | $1.1K | -$36.38 | 49% 6542-6923 (13465) |
LP lpgbCTR | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.44 | $823.59 | -$27.58 | 26% 561-1622 (2183) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $1.59 | $765 | +$763.41 | 54% 12396-10607 (23003) |
FO forgotmydinnerCTR | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $11.84 | $675 | +$663.16 | 17% 102-504 (606) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR | Yes | $604 | $604 | -$20.22 | 38% 1263-2071 (3334) |
FO fourcoin15mCTR | Yes | $529.33 | $529.33 | +$0 | 39% 5746-9151 (14897) |
KL klli27CTR | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.74 | $465.57 | -$15.57 | 29% 472-1156 (1628) |
ME merodCTR | Yes | $409.07 | $409.07 | -$13.7 | 34% 3305-6334 (9639) |
KO korda77CTR | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.06 | $326.49 | +$326.43 | 38% 7139-11757 (18896) |
 probabilityCTR | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.54 | $311.8 | -$10.44 | 40% 1565-2378 (3943) |
LI LikaseentCTR | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.03 | $234.67 | -$7.86 | 29% 345-839 (1184) |
AN anothercoinCTR | Yes | $153.7 | $153.7 | -$5.15 | 41% 796-1131 (1927) |
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR | Yes | $117.5 | $117.5 | -$3.93 | 51% 152-146 (298) |
RA rainbowliliesCTR | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.51 | $104.45 | -$1.29 | 39% 2901-4497 (7398) |
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0 | $87.5 | +$0 | 18% 244-1130 (1374) |
AK akrollCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.05 | $65 | -$2.18 | 30% 487-1148 (1635) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.08 | $40 | -$1.34 | 29% 442-1099 (1541) |
Invested
$46.08
Value
$12.7K
PnL
-$423.17
Record
31%
3237-7104 (10341)
Invested
$6,774.48
Value
$6.8K
PnL
-$226.61
Record
67%
27455-13809 (41264)
Invested
$4.89
Value
$4.1K
PnL
-$136.63
Record
35%
1820-3395 (5215)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$110.41
Record
37%
4012-6765 (10777)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$110.42
Record
17%
1308-6529 (7837)
Invested
$2.98
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$79.32
Record
23%
1780-6011 (7791)
Invested
$2.14
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$75.48
Record
20%
340-1332 (1672)
Invested
$0
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
10590-14068 (24658)
Invested
$0
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$36.38
Record
49%
6542-6923 (13465)
Invested
$0.44
Value
$823.59
PnL
-$27.58
Record
26%
561-1622 (2183)
Invested
$1.59
Value
$765
PnL
+$763.41
Record
54%
12396-10607 (23003)
Invested
$11.84
Value
$675
PnL
+$663.16
Record
17%
102-504 (606)
Invested
$604
Value
$604
PnL
-$20.22
Record
38%
1263-2071 (3334)
Invested
$529.33
Value
$529.33
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
5746-9151 (14897)
Invested
$0.74
Value
$465.57
PnL
-$15.57
Record
29%
472-1156 (1628)
Invested
$409.07
Value
$409.07
PnL
-$13.7
Record
34%
3305-6334 (9639)
Invested
$0.06
Value
$326.49
PnL
+$326.43
Record
38%
7139-11757 (18896)
probabilityCTRInvested
$0.54
Value
$311.8
PnL
-$10.44
Record
40%
1565-2378 (3943)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$234.67
PnL
-$7.86
Record
29%
345-839 (1184)
Invested
$153.7
Value
$153.7
PnL
-$5.15
Record
41%
796-1131 (1927)
Invested
$117.5
Value
$117.5
PnL
-$3.93
Record
51%
152-146 (298)
Invested
$0.51
Value
$104.45
PnL
-$1.29
Record
39%
2901-4497 (7398)
Invested
$0
Value
$87.5
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
244-1130 (1374)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$65
PnL
-$2.18
Record
30%
487-1148 (1635)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$40
PnL
-$1.34
Record
29%
442-1099 (1541)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bigggggggg
CTRYes — $12.7K
e46m3
CTRYes — $6.8K
PiEDawg
CTRYes — $4.1K
alex20011
CTRYes — $3.3K
WarriorH
CTRYes — $3.3K
0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F
CTRYes — $2.4K
VerilyWinningly
CTRYes — $2.3K
god83743894
CTRYes — $2.2K
VictorLudorum
CTRYes — $1.1K
lpgb
CTRYes — $823.59