Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Perng Shaw-jiin win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Nov 29
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$1.25
-$81.84
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $49.69 | $0.75 | -$48.95 | 73% 11074-4085 (15159) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $14.63 | $0.22 | -$14.41 | 49% 7442-7773 (15215) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $11.29 | $0.17 | -$11.12 | 60% 7177-4741 (11918) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $3.37 | $0.05 | -$3.32 | 30% 320-759 (1079) |
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.05 | $0.05 | -$3.02 | 55% 5874-4767 (10641) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $0.71 | $0.01 | -$0.7 | 44% 4029-5217 (9246) |
CU CustomTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $0.33 | $0.01 | -$0.33 | 15% 118-669 (787) |
Invested
$49.69
Value
$0.75
PnL
-$48.95
Record
73%
11074-4085 (15159)
Invested
$14.63
Value
$0.22
PnL
-$14.41
Record
49%
7442-7773 (15215)
Invested
$11.29
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$11.12
Record
60%
7177-4741 (11918)
Invested
$3.37
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$3.32
Record
30%
320-759 (1079)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$3.02
Record
55%
5874-4767 (10641)
Invested
$0.71
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.7
Record
44%
4029-5217 (9246)
Invested
$0.33
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.33
Record
15%
118-669 (787)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.