Will Pedro Pascal win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $273 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$272.63
-$0
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KA kaxel78 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $110.9 | $110.9 | +$0 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $62.13 | $62.13 | -$0 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.94 | $59.94 | -$0 | 13% 50-327 (377) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $37.46 | $37.46 | +$0 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $2.2 | $2.2 | -$0 | — 2-14 (16) |
Invested
$110.9
Value
$110.9
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$62.13
Value
$62.13
PnL
-$0
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$59.94
Value
$59.94
PnL
-$0
Record
13%
50-327 (377)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$37.46
Value
$37.46
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.2
PnL
-$0
Record
—
2-14 (16)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.