Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Pedro Acosta win the 2026 MotoGP World Championship?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Nov 29

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.86

Combined PnL

-$36.24

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.86

Total Shares1,712

Combined PnL-$36.24

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

157h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$16.95	$0.39	-$16.56	49% 24130-24681 (48811)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$7.57	$0.17	-$7.39	47% 47657-54243 (101900)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$4.95	$0.11	-$4.84	29% 3599-8831 (12430)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$4.39	$0.1	-$4.29	32% 8615-18480 (27095)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.16	$0.05	-$2.12	55% 42191-34106 (76297)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$0.84	$0.02	-$0.82	57% 41574-31333 (72907)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.02	$0	-$0.11	45% 32135-39280 (71415)
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$0.11	$0	-$0.11	34% 6259-12412 (18671)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.95

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$16.56

Record

49%

24130-24681 (48811)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.57

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$7.39

Record

47%

47657-54243 (101900)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.95

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$4.84

Record

29%

3599-8831 (12430)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.39

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$4.29

Record

32%

8615-18480 (27095)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.12

Record

55%

42191-34106 (76297)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.84

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.82

Record

57%

41574-31333 (72907)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

PnL

-$0.11

Record

45%

32135-39280 (71415)

fourcoin15mCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

PnL

-$0.11

Record

34%

6259-12412 (18671)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

157h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.