Will Patty Murray be the next US Senate Minority Leader?

1 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (9%) · No at 100¢ · $264 held · ends Jan 3, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Jan 3, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 9%

Total Value

$264.12

Combined PnL

-$16.94

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 11 top traders (9%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$258.83

Total Shares260

Combined PnL-$0.9

Yes10 traders

Total Value$5.29

Total Shares1,065

Combined PnL-$16.04

No — 9%Yes — 91%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

9% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (11 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 7

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 91% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
bernardbulletin	Noavg 99.9¢	$259.73	$258.83	-$0.9	70% 373-160 (533)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$8.14	$2.16	-$5.98	32% 2924-6249 (9173)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$67.61	$0.87	-$1.85	65% 444-243 (687)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$148.89	$0.75	-$4.42	39% 3421-5409 (8830)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$1.54	$0.41	-$1.13	20% 782-3094 (3876)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$1.05	$0.28	-$0.77	79% 502-133 (635)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.79	$0.21	-$0.58	9% 3-30 (33)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.68	$0.18	-$0.5	51% 4781-4575 (9356)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.68	$0.18	-$0.5	39% 1057-1631 (2688)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.13	$0.13	+$0	28% 113-285 (398)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.42	$0.11	-$0.31	53% 1614-1416 (3030)

bernardbulletin

Invested

$259.73

Value

$258.83

PnL

-$0.9

Record

70%

373-160 (533)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.14

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$5.98

Record

32%

2924-6249 (9173)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.61

Value

$0.87

PnL

-$1.85

Record

65%

444-243 (687)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$148.89

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$4.42

Record

39%

3421-5409 (8830)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.54

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$1.13

Record

20%

782-3094 (3876)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$0.77

Record

79%

502-133 (635)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.79

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$0.58

Record

3-30 (33)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.5

Record

51%

4781-4575 (9356)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.5

Record

39%

1057-1631 (2688)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

113-285 (398)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.42

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.31

Record

53%

1614-1416 (3030)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 11 top traders (9%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

9% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (11 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 7

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 91% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.