Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Party C win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Nov 30
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$1.13
-$67.44
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Late
118h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $22.42 | $0.37 | -$22.05 | 45% 1824-2263 (4087) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.36 | $0.36 | -$21.68 | 48% 3421-3699 (7120) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.13 | $0.13 | -$7.45 | 30% 264-608 (872) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $5.71 | $0.09 | -$5.61 | 31% 295-651 (946) |
AK akrollCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $5.5 | $0.09 | -$5.41 | 32% 318-680 (998) |
ZE zerone777CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $5.32 | $0.09 | -$5.23 | 40% 390-586 (976) |
Invested
$22.42
Value
$0.37
PnL
-$22.05
Record
45%
1824-2263 (4087)
Invested
$0.36
Value
$0.36
PnL
-$21.68
Record
48%
3421-3699 (7120)
Invested
$0.13
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$7.45
Record
30%
264-608 (872)
Invested
$5.71
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$5.61
Record
31%
295-651 (946)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$5.41
Record
32%
318-680 (998)
Invested
$5.32
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$5.23
Record
40%
390-586 (976)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.