Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will parties below the electoral threshold receive between 4% and 6% of the vote in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 46¢ · $204 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$204.4
$92.18
Research grade
NeutralYes at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
214h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 5.5¢ | $9.9 | $96.93 | +$86.76 | 42% 5279-7229 (12508) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $36.57 | $62.86 | +$26.29 | 74% 2789-1002 (3791) |
 BiDiFakePollsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 59.7¢ | $25.1 | $19.46 | -$5.64 | 58% 182-132 (314) |
 SardinianshepherdCTR<$100 | Yesavg 73.6¢ | $23.56 | $14.77 | -$8.2 | 65% 928-506 (1434) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Noavg 91.7¢ | $17.4 | $10.39 | -$7.03 | 50% 7968-8002 (15970) |
Invested
$9.9
Value
$96.93
PnL
+$86.76
Record
42%
5279-7229 (12508)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$36.57
Value
$62.86
PnL
+$26.29
Record
74%
2789-1002 (3791)
BiDiFakePollsCTR<$100Invested
$25.1
Value
$19.46
PnL
-$5.64
Record
58%
182-132 (314)
SardinianshepherdCTR<$100Invested
$23.56
Value
$14.77
PnL
-$8.2
Record
65%
928-506 (1434)
Invested
$17.4
Value
$10.39
PnL
-$7.03
Record
50%
7968-8002 (15970)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.