Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Parma win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends May 30, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$1.94
-$158.6
4.1¢ → 0.1¢
-99% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
134h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL pleaseletmealoneCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $75 | $0.9 | -$74.1 | — 0-3 (3) |
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $66.67 | $0.8 | -$65.87 | 0% 0-296 (296) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.9¢ | $11.65 | $0.15 | -$11.5 | — 0-2 (2) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.9¢ | $4.63 | $0.06 | -$4.57 | 81% 65-15 (80) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $1.34 | $0.02 | -$1.33 | — 1-11 (12) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $1.25 | $0.02 | -$1.24 | 17% 21-105 (126) |
Invested
$75
Value
$0.9
PnL
-$74.1
Record
—
0-3 (3)
Invested
$66.67
Value
$0.8
PnL
-$65.87
Record
0%
0-296 (296)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$11.65
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$11.5
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$4.63
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$4.57
Record
81%
65-15 (80)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$1.34
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.33
Record
—
1-11 (12)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.24
Record
17%
21-105 (126)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.